Wednesday, November 28, 2007

If Lou Holtz was a gambling man.

The Lou Pep Talks have been well documented in the blog community. He even has is own drinking game. But there is something that no one has yet taken a deep dive into: how terrible a job he really does. I don't mean from a wardrobe perspective, and in fact he does a great job of drawing oldmancrap on the chalk board every week. But as a gambling man I am inclined to take this angle. (Also, if you get to the end of this, I'll pass along the drinking game rules.)

The Kiss of Death, really, was created when he picked what appeared to be a much more talented Penn State team traveling to the Shit Big House. Why the hell did he give a pep talk to the favorite? This would become a trend.

So PSU loses and the curse is born. That's what you get when you put your credibility on the line with Morelli and a belief that our offensive game plan will be competent.

But then he gave the talk to LSU, the #1 team in the nation, and they lost. Why the number one team in the nation needs a pep talk from a drooling old man is beond me, but it happened none the less...but I digress.

Lets look at the point spreads of each game Lou chose this season.

Notre Dame -7 v Duke
Navy +3 v Notre Dame
Nebraska +3 v Texas
LSU -10 v Kentucky
South Florida +7 West Virginia
Penn State -2 v Michigan
Michigan -8 v Oregon
Kansas -1 v Missouri

Lou, pep talks are for those down and out. John, show us how it's done:

Lou has never seen animal house, five of the eight pep talks are to favorites, including the then #1 team in the nation. What gives? My first reaction would be to guess he wanted to bank some wins for his resume, but he started with two favorites...and of course lost both of them. So his record:

Notre Dame beats Duke, 28-7
Navy beats Notre Dame, 46-44
Nebraska loses to Texas, 28-25
LSU loses to Kentucky, 43-37
South Florida beats West Virginia, 21-13
Penn State loses to Michigan, 14-9
Michigan loses to Oregon, 39-7
Kansas loses to Missouri, 36-28

Even taking the favorite half the time, he is still a pretty terrible 3-5. Interestingly enough, the dogs are 2-1, while the favorites Lou banks on severely disappoint, a measly 1-4. So we're commin' up on the thesis:

If you are a dog and Lou decides he is going to put a 1979 version of your school on his head and spit at the camera for three full minutes? Have no fear! Chances are you'll live to see another day. Your the favorite? Better pick up an extra bottle of whisky on your way home this Friday night.

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