When Stupid Goes Wrong: Odds Preview Edition

I forgot to mention where I lifted those odd from yesterday. Well, as an added bonus, they included some worthless Big Ten analysis:

PENN STATE (+5000 in the BetUS odds) -- Linebacker Dan Connor was a big loss for the defense, but even worse, Sean Lee looked like he was going to step forward as another potential All-America, but went down with a knee injury that ended his season before it started. Anthony Morelli was not spectacular enough to lead Penn State to a Big Ten title, but he showed steadiness. Darryl Clark and Pat Devlin will battle it out for the starting QB position. There are some talented offensive players, but no game-changers. This team will go as far as the defense takes it, and leading that defense are standout defensive ends Josh Gaines and Maurice Evans. Joe Paterno will get to a bowl, and maybe even a good one, but there are no realistic national championship hopes.

If I were to write down 5,000 words to describe Anthony Morelli, "steadiness" would probably not make the list. That comment alone totally dismisses any credibility this guy may try to bring to the table; it's clear at this point that he has watched zero Penn State football games in at least the last two years.

Moving on, saying Penn State has "no game-changers" isn't quite as dumb as the "steadiness" thing, but still a bit dismissive and ill-informed. Williams is still explosive, and he can be a game changer when we call plays that aren't horribly predictable (this, unfortunately, doesn't happen much). Besides that, our tailbacks look to be very good this year, and Clark showed in the bowl game that he is athletic as hell.

Finally, we are obviously not a pre-season Top 10 team, but to say that there is no "realistic" hopes, again, shows that the person writing this nonsense simply doesn't care enough to look at any kind of relevant information. Let's look at the schedule:

August 30 Coastal Carolina Home Time TBA Big Favorite
September 6 Oregon State Home Time TBA Favorite
September 13 Syracuse Away Time TBA Big Favorite
September 20 Temple Home Time TBA Big Favorite
September 27 Illinois (1) Home 8:00 p.m. Favorite
October 4 Purdue Away Time TBA Favorite
October 11 Wisconsin Away Time TBA ???
October 18 Michigan (2) Home 4:30 p.m. Favorite
October 25 Ohio State Away 8:00 p.m. Underdog
November 8 Iowa Away Time TBA Favorite
November 15 Indiana Home Time TBA Big Favorite
November 22 Michigan State Home Time TBA Favorite

In summary:
Likely Big Favorite: 4 games
Likely Favorite: 6 games
Likely Underdog: 1
Undecided: Wisconsin

Even if you throw Wisconsin into the likely loss category, we are looking at what could be a 10-2 season if the favorites win these games. It is not "unrealistic" for Penn State to beat Wisconsin and end the season 11-1. From there, it's not entirely "unrealistic" to think that an 11-1 team could get into the BCS MNC.

I understand I am gleaming with optimism here, but I find it difficult to conclude Penn State is already out of it.

I'd love to hear what this guy said before the 2005 season. I'm not saying we'll get to that level, but if the quarterback situation gets filled properly, and a couple of linebackers step into leadership rolls, we are looking at a team with a lot of upside.

Mythical National Championship Odds For 2008

The top contenders nationally:

Southern Cal +300
Florida +600
Georgia +900
LSU +1000
Ohio State +1000
Oklahoma +1000
Texas +1200
West Virginia +1400
Virginia Tech +1400
Missouri +1400

A couple things jump out: Florida at 6:1 and UGA 9:1? With the amount of love Gergia is getting from the media, I would have thought those would be switched. Besides that, the game between these two is a home game for the Bulldogs.

Secondly, I would have though Ohio State would be closer to the top. I know there is a rather large backlash from the back-to-back losses, but they still got to the BCS MNC and are, without question, the most talented team in the Big Ten. An early game at Southern Cal will be a difficult game, and a loss will hurt their chances of finishing in the Top 2, however wins are still king and, even with a loss to SC, running the Big Ten table will probably still land them in the big game; and once you're there anything can happen. Oh, and it doesn't hurt that they get Penn State and Michigan at home.

Anyway, the top Big X contenders:

OHIO STATE +1000
ILLINOIS +3000
WISCONSIN +4000
PENN STATE +5000
MICHIGAN STATE +7000
IOWA +10000

After seeing several Way Too Early Pre-Summer Polls that have Michigan State ranked ahead of PSU, this is a bit of a relief. There is always the risk that your homerism and blinders mean you don't quite know how good or bad your team will be, but even without Lee I just can't imagine a situation where we would finish behind MSU, who plays @Cal, @Ohio State and @Penn State. All in all, though, this is about what I expected. We really weren't very good last year despite winning some big games again Wisconsin and A&M, from an outsiders perception I can understand being ranked fourth in the Big Ten, especially with our five week stretch that include Illinois, @Purdue, @Wisconsin, Michigan, @Ohio State....that is brutal.

I still am shocked at how many people are on the Zooker bandwagon. They play Missouri at a neutral site (I think, definitely not home), and then play @Penn State and @Michigan in back to back weeks (although I guess Michigan could be pretty bad this year). I also don't think people realize how good Rashard Mendenhall really was. Besides rushing for almost 1700 yards, he also was the second leading receiver in terms of catchings and the third in terms of yardage. Oh, and the whole USC/Rose Bowl thing last year doesn't usually help your public perception.