When Stupid Goes Wrong: Odds Preview Edition

I forgot to mention where I lifted those odd from yesterday. Well, as an added bonus, they included some worthless Big Ten analysis:

PENN STATE (+5000 in the BetUS odds) -- Linebacker Dan Connor was a big loss for the defense, but even worse, Sean Lee looked like he was going to step forward as another potential All-America, but went down with a knee injury that ended his season before it started. Anthony Morelli was not spectacular enough to lead Penn State to a Big Ten title, but he showed steadiness. Darryl Clark and Pat Devlin will battle it out for the starting QB position. There are some talented offensive players, but no game-changers. This team will go as far as the defense takes it, and leading that defense are standout defensive ends Josh Gaines and Maurice Evans. Joe Paterno will get to a bowl, and maybe even a good one, but there are no realistic national championship hopes.

If I were to write down 5,000 words to describe Anthony Morelli, "steadiness" would probably not make the list. That comment alone totally dismisses any credibility this guy may try to bring to the table; it's clear at this point that he has watched zero Penn State football games in at least the last two years.

Moving on, saying Penn State has "no game-changers" isn't quite as dumb as the "steadiness" thing, but still a bit dismissive and ill-informed. Williams is still explosive, and he can be a game changer when we call plays that aren't horribly predictable (this, unfortunately, doesn't happen much). Besides that, our tailbacks look to be very good this year, and Clark showed in the bowl game that he is athletic as hell.

Finally, we are obviously not a pre-season Top 10 team, but to say that there is no "realistic" hopes, again, shows that the person writing this nonsense simply doesn't care enough to look at any kind of relevant information. Let's look at the schedule:

August 30 Coastal Carolina Home Time TBA Big Favorite
September 6 Oregon State Home Time TBA Favorite
September 13 Syracuse Away Time TBA Big Favorite
September 20 Temple Home Time TBA Big Favorite
September 27 Illinois (1) Home 8:00 p.m. Favorite
October 4 Purdue Away Time TBA Favorite
October 11 Wisconsin Away Time TBA ???
October 18 Michigan (2) Home 4:30 p.m. Favorite
October 25 Ohio State Away 8:00 p.m. Underdog
November 8 Iowa Away Time TBA Favorite
November 15 Indiana Home Time TBA Big Favorite
November 22 Michigan State Home Time TBA Favorite

In summary:
Likely Big Favorite: 4 games
Likely Favorite: 6 games
Likely Underdog: 1
Undecided: Wisconsin

Even if you throw Wisconsin into the likely loss category, we are looking at what could be a 10-2 season if the favorites win these games. It is not "unrealistic" for Penn State to beat Wisconsin and end the season 11-1. From there, it's not entirely "unrealistic" to think that an 11-1 team could get into the BCS MNC.

I understand I am gleaming with optimism here, but I find it difficult to conclude Penn State is already out of it.

I'd love to hear what this guy said before the 2005 season. I'm not saying we'll get to that level, but if the quarterback situation gets filled properly, and a couple of linebackers step into leadership rolls, we are looking at a team with a lot of upside.

Keeping Up The Good Work

In another effort to prove to everyone that the media is full of shit, NFL Draft Scouts has released the top (well, 750) prospects for the 2009 NFL Draft (H/T Boiled Sports, no, I do not read this website).

Who's number one? You guessed it, the most over-rated linebacker of all time, James "Soft Up The Middle" Laurinaitis. He is one of four linebackers in the top ten. Sean Lee come in at #6 overall. The other two LBs up at the top are both from USC.

There are only six 'skill' players in the top 25, which seems odd. The first offensive player on the list is all the way down at #9, Purdue QB Curtis Painter. The next Penn State player after Lee is #54 Derrick Williams.

The two things that really jump out are the number of Big Ten players in the top 50, although half of them appear to be from Ohio State.

Ohio State	5
Purdue	2
Wisconsin	2
Michigan	2
Penn State	1
Michigan State	1
Iowa	1

So not quite half, but that's still 10% of the top 50 on one team. LSU is also loaded on this list, which makes you wonder how much work they actually did. It's pretty easy to take the best players on the best teams and assume they are the better players. However, by most accounts OSU has a loaded roster so this might not be as much bullshit as I wish it was.

This is a terrible predictor and I'm not implying we make anything of it, but just the suggestion that we might have an OSU v LSU rematch makes me want to sick sharp objects into my eyes.

Damn, that went fast.

So the Mythical National Championship game is tonight, meaning tomorrow we all give up college football cold turkey and struggle through the off season the way Johnny Cash was forced to give up amphetamines.


(Don't look now, but we may have found a saving grace. Is sounds like our basketball team might not suck this year.)

So about the game, it was a hard decision: who the hell do I root for? On one hand, I'm tired of Ohio State. I'm tired of them winning. I'm tired of them dominating us in recruiting. I'm tired of their old-ass annoying president.

On the other hand, who wants to hear about "SEC Speed" for another 12 months? I sure as hell don't. Nevermind that Michgan manged to beat Florida, no one will give a damn unless Ohio State wins this game. While I don't usually buy the "you have to root for your conference" nonsense, this might be an exception. If the Big Ten gets into the MNC for the second straight year, and gets blown out for the second straight year, there might actually be a backlash. If a Big Ten teams lands on the bubble next year after the final week of the season, you can bet your ass the outcome of the game tonight will be brought up over and over again by the 'experts'.

Because of all of this (and I'm not proud to admit it), I will be rooting for Ohio State in the MNC Game tonight. Go Buckeyes, please don't embarrass yourself again.